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Post by minbyaran on Mar 31, 2010 9:13:40 GMT -5
Being fox instead of Wario now may have saved you. The question is, will they believe there are two survivors, or do we have to kill off one of our best patsys to protect our own hides...
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Post by quaetam on Mar 31, 2010 19:20:01 GMT -5
You're quite correct, changing to Fox saved my ass.
The determining factor of our nightkill is really whether or not the other Allies know about my role. To assess the situation we have four possible nightkill targets tonight: td260, Ansem, DRTJR, and Avalanche. The biggest question here is whether or not the other townies know of my 'role' as 'survivor.' If they do, killing either td260 or Ansem/DRTJR is the best bet.
td260 could confirm that JGH27 was a survivor, and that would make me suspicious. However this threat will be nullified if you manage to convince him to check out Hans or one of the other earlier kills. If you think you can keep him off of JGH27's corpse, we don't need to kill him yet, and in fact his presence could greatly help our cause.
Conversely, Ansem claims to know what everyone's role is, and he's strong enough in his opinion that he'd be dangerous if left alive. The same applies for DRTJR, and DRTJR is also one of the people who is the least use to us alive.
Now here's the big question: Should Avalanche die? First, do the townies know my role? If they don't, killing Avalanche, even if it would potentially grant Raya Vigilante powers, is a solid course of action, as he'd be the only one who could shed suspicion on me. However, I think he's a bit too smart for that. Chances are he's told everyone of my role. Killing him would probably nail shut my coffin as well. Also, I have some ideas as to how I could avoid suspicion.
What do you think of all this?
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Post by minbyaran on Mar 31, 2010 20:32:48 GMT -5
I can TOTALLY convince TD to scan someone else.but again, who of the rest to kill... Not Avalanche yet, a little longer. Either DRTJR or Ansem...
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Post by quaetam on Mar 31, 2010 20:57:36 GMT -5
Well, what I was saying about Avalanche mostly centered around my belief that he's my strongest advocate (besides you of course, and, with your influence, td260). I agree that he should be left alone.
Right now our nightkill is still on DRTJR, but if Ansem appears to be a greater danger we might want to bite the bullet and have him killed. To determine this, I ask two questions:
1) Which townie poses a greater threat to our continued existence (well, MINE at this point but by extension yours as well) ?
2) What do you think our chances are of getting Ansem lynched? If they're low, he might just be a better target. For that matter, however, do you think he might be an obvious target (as someone who knows my role. Also, DRTJR has been quick enough to jump to conclusions that he could prove dangerous. However, his anti-Raya crusade could help my plan for the next round.
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