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Post by quaetam on Mar 17, 2010 19:40:13 GMT -5
Alright, this is a thread to discuss possible allies as well as who we know isn't on our side. We were lucky to get Minby night one, but with a game this size I wouldn't be surprised if there's more people on our side as well. That said, let's look at the current roster and see what we know:
Red is deceased, orange is one of us, purple is suspected cult. Pink is original member of Avalanche's Alliance Teal is Serial Killer
1. Avalanche91 (Drunk Doctor) 2. TheTJ 3. Weldar (Mafia Godmother) 4. Viero (Cult Leader) 5. td260 (Coroner) 6. JGH27 (Survivor) 7. Quaetam 8. MENTOK the MINDTAKER (Cop) 9. SurgePox (Lightning Rod) 10. DarkFalco (Squirtle, SK) 11. Raya (Secret Admirer) 12. Sahrimnir 13. SnakeInABox (Mason Recruiter) 14. Spontaneous Combustion 15. Fobby (Jester) 16. Hans (Mafia Assassin) 17. DRTJR (Backup Doctor) 18. Minby_Aran (Traitor) 19. Warchamp7 20. Ansem (Copycat)
Surge isn't completely confirmed but he's close enough that I think it's a fair bet. We're killing him tonight anyways (provided he doesn't have protection and we don't change), so that's beside the point.
What I find to be particularly noteworthy now is the low level of activity on two of these individuals:
Sahrimnir-He didn't even post Day 2, yet he's been on during that time.
Raya-Has only posted 3-4 times this game (I'm in no mood to count).
This doesn't mean anything but could be an indicator of a possible ally. That aside, you contacted spont, raya, and avalanche, right Weldar? Did all three respond to your PMs? If not, that's certainly somewhere to start.
Again, this is all wild speculation.
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Post by minbyaran on Mar 17, 2010 19:51:19 GMT -5
This puts things in better perspective. In any case, we can definately trust TD as an ally, I already have him more than controlled. I also agree that Raya and Sahrimnir look like possible allies. Should I PM them and see if they respond?
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Post by quaetam on Mar 17, 2010 20:20:17 GMT -5
Well, we certainly shouldn't contact them until next day phase of course . However, before we do anything even then we should find out if Weldar heard back from Raya. As for Sah, do you think you can justify contacting someone who has been THAT FAR under the radar? Determining what he's up to isn't worth losing one of our own. You should only try getting in touch with him if you can find a really good reason.
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Weldar
Efficient Hitman
Schizophrenic Backstabbing Bitch
Posts: 57
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Post by Weldar on Mar 18, 2010 0:09:35 GMT -5
I think Raya is mostly inactive due to her timezone. I'm pretty sure nightfall and all the really active periods this game have happened around the time she's sleeping.
Sah is a natural born lurker. I say let him slide under the radar for another day. If he doesn't do anything again we should call him out.
Perosnally I kinda doubt we have another ally. I'd say Raya is another possibility but I'm not too sure. still I was considering trying to actually get in contact with her tomorrow as well.
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Post by quaetam on Mar 18, 2010 16:51:31 GMT -5
The only problem with amassing a large group of townies in which you are involved is that life will get really difficult for the rest of us.
Also, since you've so far acted very similar to raya's 3rd game (where she was lakitu) in regards to your style of creating alliances with townies, there is a chance she could recognize that. A low chance, but still there.
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Post by quaetam on Mar 19, 2010 0:03:07 GMT -5
Updating the list.
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Weldar
Efficient Hitman
Schizophrenic Backstabbing Bitch
Posts: 57
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Post by Weldar on Mar 19, 2010 0:11:38 GMT -5
Raya didn't really approach anyone, smashbro approached her. Still it looks like my good friend SurgePox is still alive so maybe I'll just talk to him about Minby instead.
Also I'm pretty sure Snake really was a mason, which means Avalanche and DRTJR are masons as well.
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Post by quaetam on Mar 19, 2010 0:18:20 GMT -5
This leaves us in a tight spot. If surge DID have protection last night we're in trouble, but it seems that for some reason there were 2 nightkills anyways, so I suspect Olimar may have actually tried to recruit one of us as well. I sincerely hope both Viero and SIAB got the same person.
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Weldar
Efficient Hitman
Schizophrenic Backstabbing Bitch
Posts: 57
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Post by Weldar on Mar 19, 2010 0:23:56 GMT -5
I'm almost certain Surge wasn't protected. By trying to recruit us Snake didn't die but rather got placed at the top of our kill list which meant he would die in Surge's place. I'm almost certain there's a Serial Killer (or Vigilante I guess) and that's what killed Viero.
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Post by quaetam on Mar 19, 2010 22:58:23 GMT -5
We should definitely call into question anyone who has voted for people besides you. They seem to be good possible allies, although they might all just be bandwagoning on Warchamp.
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Post by minbyaran on Mar 22, 2010 17:31:03 GMT -5
3 you say....lets see....there is you, Mentok, Surgepox, DRTJR, Ansem, TD seeks my alliance now as well, Darkfalco is a alley of DRTJR and I am 95% sure Queatam can be trusted. including me thats 9 so yeah, I took the game, and broke it. The detective, the doctor, the copycat, the reserve doctor, the lightningrod, the serial killer, the coroner, all under one flag....I'd say we have a fair chance on winning. Even so much that I feel bad for the mafia. I know what a broken game is like from the first game Maybe I should ask Smashbro to use his godmode to kill me off next nightphase just to fuck with people. Also: no one will die tonight. I repeat no one dies tonight if you're still somehow in contact with the mafia, tell them I said fuck you Directly from Avalanche's PM. that's 9 people. Two (you and I) we know have no roles. There are 7 roles there. that means ALL of them have roles. Now to decypher. Surge-lighteningrod we knew that TD-Coroner knew it DarkFalco-Doctor "hot on her trail" makes it likely. But serial killer...that's weird.
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Post by quaetam on Mar 22, 2010 20:05:15 GMT -5
If DarkFalco is female I agree that "hot on her trail" makes it likely that she's the doctor. Given all of this we need to find a way to break this wall. Is there anything you can think of that we can do to take someone out without being blocked? I mean, do you know how Surge's ability works? We need to try to find a loophole if we're going to fix this broken game.
The best plan we have is to gain Avalanche's complete trust and wear down the remaining townies who aren't in the alliance. When no one is left but the nine of us, we must then make sure we can tear the alliance apart from the inside. As a quick example, why the f*** would the SK admit his role if he's siding with the townies? I mean, at best it would buy him time but in the end he's probably going to lose.
If we use logic like that, sewing enough discord to tear apart that alliance wouldn't be impossible, just nearly so. The one problem is that when there are no other options, the natural targets will be the ones who scan as mafia.
Also, one more thing. For one day, Avalanche's Alliance is still a minority. By having no death tonight, there are 15 people left and only 7 of them are actually in the Alliance itself (two of the nine being me and you). If they don't vote unanimously, we have one chance to take out Surge or one of the other major players tomorrow.
Also Also, given that Avalanche trusts me, I can expect to be contacted. I need an alibi, something solid that won't be disproven in one round with a doctor scan. Any suggestions?
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Post by minbyaran on Mar 22, 2010 20:15:38 GMT -5
Well, we can definitely try to work them from the inside. I know I have Avalanche as my "protector" and TD is wrapped around my finger. also, they must know that they'll need to take out the SK to win, so they'll lose that bit, plus no matter what, we'll have TD, so that will make it 5-3 them in number. If I can convince Avalanche to give himself up like he was saying, but have him have everyone vote for him, we'll get Raya, making the numbers 4-4. From there, we only need to take out one of them, we can vote one out with numbers and then we win. As for a role that would help you. You're Wario, the Honorary deputy Guido. You're the backup cop. If they scan you as Mafia, you can say that you're probably also a Miller, and as such, scan as Mafia.
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Post by quaetam on Mar 22, 2010 21:39:12 GMT -5
Don't forget, there's still 15 people left. For now, what we need to do is survive and get good cover. When we reach a point with only nine of us remaining (the people in the alliance), we can do as you say. Also, Avalanche giving himself up would help us a lot, but you would have to find a way to do it without arousing any suspicion whatsoever. Like I said a while ago, I don't want either of us to end up a one man mafia.
As for tonight's kill, given that Surge will be protected, who do you think we should target? We can try to get Surge just in case there's a loophole in his ability or he in fact isn't protected, or DarkFalco for that same reason.
In fact, I almost wonder whether the doctor's protection ability will still save Surge if he uses the lightning rod ability to absorb the kill. For that matter, we could try to kill DarkFalco or one of the other Alliance members.
The only people we should absolutely avoid targeting are Warchamp7, Avalanche, and Raya. Warchamp is going to look suspicious to Avalanche if the Mafia doesn't eliminate him, and killing Avalanche would give us a deadly enemy (Raya as a vig), while killing Raya will lose us a potential ally.
What it really boils down to is whether to target Surge or to target one of the other prominent Alliance members. The way I see it is that smashbro is too smart to make such a game-breaking possibility as having a lightning rod that can get protected by the doctor to prevent any nightkills from taking place. It's likely that Surge can either only be protected when he is targeted or protected when he absorbs a kill. We have to decide whether to kill him or kill a different alliance member.
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Post by minbyaran on Mar 23, 2010 5:41:08 GMT -5
Well, if they're saying no one's going to die tonight, then they're most likely suspecting someone random to be targeted, surge to absorb it, and DF to protect him. So what if we directly target surge, because sometimes that's how the loophole is broken. It's a longshot, but it might work.
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