Post by quaetam on Mar 26, 2010 15:27:53 GMT -5
Alright. We've arrived at a position of amazing opportunity with both of us undercover, the masons and cult dead, and all the major townie roles revealed to us. With two of us, we will win if both of us are alive and four people are left. However, I have an idea that could let us win with 7 remaining.
Earlier in The BRAWL Rooom I mentioned that we might want to kill td260 now that his usefulness has been exhausted. The fact of the matter is, it hasn't. I've come up with a strategy based on something you yourself said earlier, Minby:
If we can engineer a situation in which both of us, Raya, td260, Avalanche, and two other townies are alive, we can win that round. Essentially, we both vote Avalanche, persuade td260 to vote Avalanche, and tell Raya that if she votes Avalanche as well we'll all win. Avalanche will get lynched and Raya will join our side, resulting in a 3-3 mafia/townie tie and our win.
With 12 people left starting next dayphase (Episode 5, with a 2-10 mafia-town ratio), this means that, should everything work out with one lynch and one nightkill each day, Episode 6 will have 10 people (2-8), Episode 7 will have 8 (2-6), and Episode 8 will have 6 (2-4). We can win on Episode 8 if both of the aforementioned townies are still alive. If both of us remain and we don't fail in any of our nightkills, we're guaranteed a win Episode 9 (2-2).
Episode 8 will guarantee a win if we can persuade both td260 and Raya to vote for Avalanche (the wildcard here being td260, who would probably notice something is wrong by that point and switch off. Still, unless the townies besides Raya all vote for the same person, Avalanche will be lynched).
Arguably we can win one day earlier, on Episode 7. With 8 people, using Raya and td260 to our advantage for a total of four votes controlled by us, we only need one extraneous townie to vote Avalanche for us to win by giving us a 5-3 majority. However we shouldn't do anything unless one of the other townies besides td260 and Raya votes Avalanche, because we'd need at least 5 votes to secure a lynch. If that happens, we'll kill Avalanche and get Raya, coming up at a 3-4 mafia-townie ratio in the nightphase. Our kill will grant us victory with a 3-3 tie.
Now there are several things that can inferfere with this:
1) Either of us is killed. That would suck, and I'm worried as ever that some random townie will have a Fox role.
2) Raya is killed. This seems likely, and would mean we have to wait another dayphase or two before we win in all likeliness. If Raya is dead we might want to go straight for Avalanche; he's the major thing keeping the townies solidified. Raya staying alive is probably essential to this scheme, as otherwise we basically have to wait until only 5 or 6 people remain, a lot harder than 8.
3) td260 is killed. By lynch this seems unlikely, but we might need him out of the way if we want to take down some of the major town roles without arousing suspicion.
4) We miss a nightkill or skip a lynch for some odd reason. This actually won't make a huge difference if any, because 7 is the magic winning number for us and right now the days are progressing on evens.
The biggest threat is Raya dying by SK nightkill, which should be countered with our targeting DarkFalco tonight. Beyond that, we really would be betting a lot on Raya's willingness to win as a mafian and on the idea that td260 will follow us if we attack Avalanche and not realize that we're mafia. A lot also depends on which townies are left. Spont would be helpful, as he doesn't really like Avalanche right now.
Also, it might be preferrable to see Raya lynched, because then we could take out Avalanche and arouse a lot of confusion. I suppose this depends on the goings on tomorrow. With DarkFalco dying tonight I think it will be a lot easier to target Avalanche, since Avalanche no longer has the Raya-vig threat to protect him.
I really wonder how DarkFalco managed to get himself manipulated like that. Perhaps the cop got really lucky Day 1.
Earlier in The BRAWL Rooom I mentioned that we might want to kill td260 now that his usefulness has been exhausted. The fact of the matter is, it hasn't. I've come up with a strategy based on something you yourself said earlier, Minby:
If we can engineer a situation in which both of us, Raya, td260, Avalanche, and two other townies are alive, we can win that round. Essentially, we both vote Avalanche, persuade td260 to vote Avalanche, and tell Raya that if she votes Avalanche as well we'll all win. Avalanche will get lynched and Raya will join our side, resulting in a 3-3 mafia/townie tie and our win.
With 12 people left starting next dayphase (Episode 5, with a 2-10 mafia-town ratio), this means that, should everything work out with one lynch and one nightkill each day, Episode 6 will have 10 people (2-8), Episode 7 will have 8 (2-6), and Episode 8 will have 6 (2-4). We can win on Episode 8 if both of the aforementioned townies are still alive. If both of us remain and we don't fail in any of our nightkills, we're guaranteed a win Episode 9 (2-2).
Episode 8 will guarantee a win if we can persuade both td260 and Raya to vote for Avalanche (the wildcard here being td260, who would probably notice something is wrong by that point and switch off. Still, unless the townies besides Raya all vote for the same person, Avalanche will be lynched).
Arguably we can win one day earlier, on Episode 7. With 8 people, using Raya and td260 to our advantage for a total of four votes controlled by us, we only need one extraneous townie to vote Avalanche for us to win by giving us a 5-3 majority. However we shouldn't do anything unless one of the other townies besides td260 and Raya votes Avalanche, because we'd need at least 5 votes to secure a lynch. If that happens, we'll kill Avalanche and get Raya, coming up at a 3-4 mafia-townie ratio in the nightphase. Our kill will grant us victory with a 3-3 tie.
Now there are several things that can inferfere with this:
1) Either of us is killed. That would suck, and I'm worried as ever that some random townie will have a Fox role.
2) Raya is killed. This seems likely, and would mean we have to wait another dayphase or two before we win in all likeliness. If Raya is dead we might want to go straight for Avalanche; he's the major thing keeping the townies solidified. Raya staying alive is probably essential to this scheme, as otherwise we basically have to wait until only 5 or 6 people remain, a lot harder than 8.
3) td260 is killed. By lynch this seems unlikely, but we might need him out of the way if we want to take down some of the major town roles without arousing suspicion.
4) We miss a nightkill or skip a lynch for some odd reason. This actually won't make a huge difference if any, because 7 is the magic winning number for us and right now the days are progressing on evens.
The biggest threat is Raya dying by SK nightkill, which should be countered with our targeting DarkFalco tonight. Beyond that, we really would be betting a lot on Raya's willingness to win as a mafian and on the idea that td260 will follow us if we attack Avalanche and not realize that we're mafia. A lot also depends on which townies are left. Spont would be helpful, as he doesn't really like Avalanche right now.
Also, it might be preferrable to see Raya lynched, because then we could take out Avalanche and arouse a lot of confusion. I suppose this depends on the goings on tomorrow. With DarkFalco dying tonight I think it will be a lot easier to target Avalanche, since Avalanche no longer has the Raya-vig threat to protect him.
I really wonder how DarkFalco managed to get himself manipulated like that. Perhaps the cop got really lucky Day 1.