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Post by quaetam on Mar 28, 2010 9:48:10 GMT -5
There is always the option of taking a gamble and giving Raya her vigilante powers however. She's more likely to hit an innocent than one of us, meaning we COULD win a day earlier if we played our cards right, and we could take down Mentok the next night and stop all scans. However this would be risky.
We really need to know whether or not Raya is dying today though, because keeping her alive is in our best interests as with 9 people left tomorrow we really could hold about 4 votes in our hands.
EDIT: Also, it's possible that the kill on Sahrimnir was done by Avalanche, because Avalanche, as drunk Mario, might get a Vig-type ability. I think I'm looking way too far into that one though. It was probably DF.
Also also, we do have one thing going for us here: there's no way everyone in the alliance has been scanned, and Avalanche seems to trust both of us completely. In all likeliness attention won't be drawn to us for a while unless we draw it on ourselves. Furthermore, the allies haven't yet seemed to hit on the percision with which we've picked them off. Spont (while not an ally) brought up the theory that we're going based on coin tosses!
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Post by quaetam on Mar 29, 2010 21:00:25 GMT -5
Alright, I'm making a double-post here because I think we need to lay down the line on who lives and who dies. First, I've come to the conclusion that Avalanche is dangerous whether we let him live or kill him off. Letting him live allows him to continue to coordinate the efforts of the townies, while killing him off will eliminate the only person so far who knows my alibi and could in fact lead to a greater chance of me getting lynched. Not to mention that Raya still could be dependent on Avalanche and is lying to you.
I want to point out that if JGH is killed today (if Avalanche doesn't get the cop's results before the day ends) we have a much better chance of winning (tomorrow with 9 people there's still Spont and Raya, and the next day with 7 there's still one more. Assuming we really can't get Raya on our side, we have to win one day after that, when 5 remain.)
On top of that, the death post phrase "Someone took justice into their own hands" DOES appear to be the work of a vigilante, and there wasn't such a phrase before when DF was still alive. There's a good chance Raya might ALREADY have vigilante powers. If that's the case tomorrow will probably have 8 people left and beyond that we can't risk letting the Vig live. I trust that if Avalanche learns of a vigilante however he'll probably tell you through td260 so we should figure out by tomorrow. Letting the Vigilante live for one night will shorten the number of days we need to emerge victorious by one. (today has 11, tomorrow 9, 2 days 7, 3 days 5, 4 days we win. With a vigilante today has 11, tomorrow 8, 2 days 6/5, next day we win. And that's assuming the we can hit the vig tomorrow. )
Now, with all obvious targets either vindicated or eliminated by the end of tomorrow, we need to decide which of the Alliance are most likely to appear suspicious. We have to survive one or two more days (depending if there's a Vigilante) after the unaffiliated innocents are gone, so we need to make those days count.
Therefore, we need to find whom out of the Alliance could be perceived as lying about their role and find some way to sew suspicion in their directions. The longer we can keep any attention off of us, the better our chances of survival will be. My nominations are td260 and Ansem. It would be so easy for someone to claim copycat and lie. Same, and more, with coroner. td260 should be our last priority however as he is useful to us in so many ways. Making these two (one at a time) seem suspicious would be a possible method of keeping the fingers of the public pointed away from us.
EDIT: I also want to apologize for how badly I failed you during this last nightphase. We should have targeted Mentok. Earlier in the game, about a dayphase or two ago, I had noticed that whoever was being drunk every night seems to get drunk every other night. Knowing Avalanche was the drunk doctor, I should have realized that following the pattern he would fail to protect Mentok last night. It just didn't occur to me until I saw the death post.
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Post by minbyaran on Mar 29, 2010 21:42:38 GMT -5
Hey, don't blame yourself. What's done is done, no use looking back. I think we can definitely work on taking out the alliance members, someone random tonight, then Mentok next night, then from there things go downhill... My biggest fear is that one of them will think they might have to get rid of one or both of us to win, since we're "mafia alligned"/survivors.
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Post by minbyaran on Mar 29, 2010 22:20:39 GMT -5
Also, I "didn't" see TD's role PM, I only took his word. He would obviously know who is Mafia, and who isn't if we WAS Mafia
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Post by quaetam on Mar 29, 2010 22:46:25 GMT -5
That's my fear as well, and the exact reason it's essential that we find some way to sew suspicion amongst their ranks by finding some way to make them suspect td260 or even Ansem is lying about their role. We also have some room for maneuvering if we look at Avalanche's suspicions of TheTJ.
Also, if Ansem doesn't get on in the next hour or so, don't forget that JGH27 will die.
Furthermore, if I can send Avalanche that PM surrounding Raya, that COULD buy us a day, which may just be enough to get us a victory.
As for what you said about td260, we should only kill him if no one else is a viable option, because we can almost control his vote at this point.
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Post by minbyaran on Mar 30, 2010 12:01:38 GMT -5
Yeah, it's just a last resort to get him instead of us. I say send the PM, I don't want to risk them getting (another) Vigilante. Also, of course Ansem can copy the cop if he's a Mafia. He knows who's Mafia and who isn't
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Post by quaetam on Mar 30, 2010 15:23:48 GMT -5
Well today the attention has switched off Raya enough that I should probably wait until tomorrow, but I might send one tonight.
And you do know that right now there's going to be no lynch, right? There's 3 votes on JGH and 3 on nobody. If JGH dies he'll be proven innocent and his claims will be validated, providing good reason to suspect Ansem.
This is going to be a really close one but I actually believe we can pull it off.
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Post by minbyaran on Mar 30, 2010 15:29:28 GMT -5
If you vote for JGH, we can kill him, and work on taking out ansem, since he's deadset on killing JGH. It's too late for me too switch without looking like I'm shifting too much.
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Post by quaetam on Mar 30, 2010 15:39:13 GMT -5
My one problem with targeting JGH is that if he's an innocent, I'D be the vote to push him over the top . It's not like that's a huge red flag or anything, but with this few leads I'd rather not give them any reason to doubt me.
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Post by minbyaran on Mar 30, 2010 15:50:36 GMT -5
But also, Avalanche is the person who you "trust" and believe to be the center of town knowledge. You're just voting with him.
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Post by quaetam on Mar 30, 2010 17:07:39 GMT -5
I'll probably place my vote soon, once I think of a good way to phrase the post.
BTW the fact that Ansem suspects you pretty much ensures that we shouldn't nightkill him.
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Post by minbyaran on Mar 30, 2010 17:11:25 GMT -5
Yup. And, added to that the fact that he'll be easy to get lynched anyway once we know JGH is innocent.
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Post by quaetam on Mar 30, 2010 17:18:58 GMT -5
That's my one reservation from voting JGH though: Not only will Ansem appear suspicious, I will as well. I have an idea that could make such actions valid though, hence my thinking of how to phrase the post.
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Post by minbyaran on Mar 30, 2010 17:42:47 GMT -5
I'm sure you'll word it well. That seems to be one of your strong suits.
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Post by quaetam on Mar 30, 2010 21:50:14 GMT -5
Posted this:
I'm continuing my appearance as a thoughtful townie. Also, if no one proves JGH innocent by the end of the dayphase, I'll PM Avalanche asking if he's got the results of the scan on JGH27, since I'd rather not vote for an innocent.
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